BEIJING: China is likely to set a 2026 official economic growth target of between 4.5% and 5%, the South China Morning Post reported on Friday, reflecting how even a US$1.2 trillion trade surplus cannot shield the world’s No. 2 economy from slowing global growth.
The US$19 trillion Chinese economy grew 5% in 2025, meeting the government’s target and defying a second Trump White House intent on slowing it down by stepping up shipments elsewhere to offset weak domestic consumption, a strategy that economists warn will be increasingly hard to sustain.
The International Monetary Fund expects global growth to hold at 3.3% this year, matching 2025, before slipping by one percentage point in 2027, meaning that Chinese exporters will likely need to accept ever-lower prices if they are to sustain record-breaking shipments.